Valur 3 - 1 Fylkir

As expected we could see some goals in this match. Both teams have made a very offensive game, starting and press for the net from the very first minutes, so I'd say the Multi Goal choice was quite safe. Too bad for Fylkir that had to end an impressive away streak, also ruining my just-for-fun bet on them.
Rematch (in VISA-Bikar) next week. Stay tuned.

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 27-07-05 -

Valur - Fylkir (2-1 in reverse fixture):

Just 2 words since today I have not much time to properly write a preview..

We have the two most entertaining sides of the league this night.

The newly promoted Valur are flying high and it's not unlikely we'll see them playing in next UEFA Cup.

Fylkir Reykjavik are a sort of Dr. Jekyll - Mr. Hide: they struggle at home, but on the road this team looks almost unstoppable.

Both are surely in-form: Valur have seen the impressive winning streak they suddenly end due to 2 defeats in a row (away at IBV and at home to FH), but they managed to bounce back with 3 consecutive victories in Landsbankadeild and with the qualification to semi-finals in VISA-Bikar.

Filkyir come to this match from 4 away victories in a row (including 2 VISA-Bikar matches at HK and Grindavik), while overall they only lost 2 games in last 11 matches palyed.

For the upcoming game Valur should be at full strenght, while Fylkir still have some injury worries, but they don't look to care too much about them. Furthermore they fully recovered the important Helgason.

H2H stats show that Fylkir usually do well at Valur.

The most important thing to be considered is next week Valur and Fylkir will meet each other again for VISA-Bkar s/f.
I think Fylkir will be more motivated in the cup match because getting to the final (most probably vs FH, that will visit Fram for the other s/f) could mean achieving a place in next UEFA Cup, so they could even use this match to study their opponent, but I'm just guessing here.

I've seen the odds currently offered by most bookies and have to say I could not find any value in homewin. I would not touch Valur at less than 2,20/2,25. Fylkir are still unbeaten away and they won this fixture many times in the past, so why not today? Do 'mighty' Valur from 1. deild deserve odds like 1,85-1,90 to beat the 3rd team in the table? I don't think so.. This game can go either way and odds around 3,70/3,80 on guests are worth at least a single unit try.
Another interesting choice could be a high-scoring relate bet since the way these sides play and the tradition do suggest the goalkeepers won't have an easy night

Valur - Fylkir:
Pick: Multigoal Chance 4-6
Odds: 3,20
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 3/10
Confidence: 4.5/10

KK_

Throttur 0 - 1 Fram

Bad loss.. Throttur made an awful game, providing no efforts at all to grab the victory. First shot on target for the hosts at 40' 1st Half.
In the 2nd part of the game an own - goal killed the game.
Better luck next time..

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 25-07-2005 -

Throttur - Fram (0-3 in reverse fixture)

Reykjavik derby between two low table sides.

Fram currently occupies the last place in the table. They barely collected 8 points out of 11 played games; also the team looks totally out of form having lost 5 games in a row, so it would be correct saying they're seriously risking to be relegated to 1. deild.
Fram's loosing streak had an end last week in VISA-Bikar. They managed to progress to semi-finals of the Icelandic national Cup at IBV's expenses. After being held on 1-1 draw at the end of 90' they defeated their opponent with the final score of 2-1. If you ask me I'd say such an achievement is not even worth the Extra Time needed to get rid of a poor IBV side: Fram have no chances to win the Cup (they'll host FH in next round) and they should be only concerned of the league.

The newly promoted Throttur have just 1 point more than Fram. They had an awful start and if you had been following them you would have agreed with the icelandic experts who said, before the season started, they're the poorest side in Landsbankadeild. But looking at the latest results reveals they're clearly on an up-trend.
A couple of weeks ago Throttur hired a new manager: Edvalsson, who is making a fine job. Under his management Throttur collected 4 points in 2 games and, most important thing, they did not allow a single goal.
Surely Edvalsson worked hard with the defense, being it the main weakness of the team. If you look at the table you'll notice that Throttur have the best attack amongst the 'strugglers', but their offensive potential did not match their poor defense. So Edvalsson set the forward Ludviksson (former IBV) as a starter, loosing a bit in offence, but gaining much in defense. Ludviksson does not score much, but he knows how to come back and cover the game.
Also the talented capitain Pall Einarsson have found his work doubled, but now the whole team is much more balanced.

For the upcoming game Throttur will miss the midfielder Sigurdsson (suspended), while Jens Saevarsson (very important) should be fit and ready to play after a little injury. Finally Jonasson and Haflidasson are doubtful.

Fram should be at full strenght, being the only Sveinsson unavailable for the game.

H2H:

2003 Throttur - Fram 2-1
1998 Throttur - Fram 0-0
1996 Throttur - Fram 3-3

I've seen the most common odds offered on homewin are around 2,45/2,50 (now they've dropped a bit at some bookie). I think it must be a joke.
IMHO Throttur are very close to a victory here. They know that 3 points today can be decisive and they'll fight to death to get them. Fram will be motivated as well, but I can't see how a team in freefall could properly oppose to a side that is revealing a very tough nut to crack even to the more skilled opponents.

Throttur - Fram:

Pick: Throttur
Odds: 2,50
Bookmaker: Betandwin
Stake: 7/10
Confidence: 5,5/10

KK_

IBV 0 - 1 FH

Close one, but FH had to play the whole 2nd half with only 10 men. Still too much for a team that probably will soon say goodbye to the Icelandic top league.

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 24-07-2005 -

IBV - FH (0-3 in the reverse fixture):

Lately I avoided backing Hafnarfjordur. So far FH won 10 out of 10 games and the recurring idea is they simply will have to end this impressive streak before or later, so why risking some money on the ridiculous odds that bookie usually offer on them?
But now FH palyed 3 winless matches in a row: they've lost to Neftchi, in Azerbaijan, in the 1st leg of CL preliminaries; then they've been held on 1-1 home draw by IA Akranes in VISA-Bikar - the Icelandic national Cup - (although they hammered their opponent in Extra Time, winning 5-1); they, finally, lost the 2nd leg of CL vs Baku.
I believe after this streak a new victory would be fine for their morale and their supporters, although they don't have an urgent need of points (I think the final victory in the Icelandic league is out of discussion for FH).

IBV are one of the strongest candidate for relegation. They were before the season started and they're now, when half of the season has gone.
Last round IBV managed to get a precious point away at Keflavik. A result far from being surprising, at least to me. Keflavik are a side that play better on the road, while at home they have many problems to hold the lead (the same happened in the game vs Fylkir).
A couple of days before IBV got another away draw, at Fram in VISA-Bikar. Useless result since Fram defeated them in extra time, so IBV are out of the national Cup and it's likely they will be out of UEFA Cup as well, since they weren't able do defeat at home the poor Far Oer side in the 1st leg, last week.
To strenghten the squad IBV have bought just few days ago the Danish player Rune Lind (former Esbjerg and Danemark U18), but it looks he won't play next game.

For the upcoming game FH will be able to field their best available team. It also look they'll want to make an offensive game since their manager is going to pass from 4-4-2 to 4-3-3 module.

IBV will have many important absence. First of all they'll field a weakened attack: Joahnssen (top scorer of the team) is injured and Petur Sigurdsson (loaned by FH themselves) is not allowed to play vs his team as well as the talented midfielder Gudmundsson. Finally, the defender Vidarsson will be serving 1 week ban. The offensive midfielder Matthew Platt will probably play as forward.

H2H:

2004 IBV-FH 1-3
2003 IBV-FH 1-3
2002 IBV-FH 2-0
2001 IBV-FH 0-0

Hard to see FH failing to win here. Even if IBV could play with the best available team I'd probably back the guests anyway. With 4 first-team players out IMHO Vestmannaejyar don't have a single chance to get something from this match.

IBV - FH:

Pick: FH
Odds: 1,55
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 9/10
Confidence: 9/10

KK_

HK 0 - 2 Fylkir

Hard way (but I'v never taklked about an easy one ;)) for Fylkir, but finally they got rid of HK with two late goals.
This night will be played the last two clashes of 1/8 finals in VISA Bikar. Interesting odds, that's sure, but I'll avoid any bet. Maybe it's too early to say, but I feel next Landsbankadeild round could be very profitable so let's save the money for it!

KK_

VISA-Bikar - 20-07-2005 -

HK - Fylkir

HK (1.deild) host Fylkir (Landsbankadeild) after having defeated Keflavik, another team from the top division, in the previous round of the Icelandic national Cup.

HK currently are in the mid-table of their division, with 13 points less than the table leader Breidablik and 6 less than Vikingur Reykjiavik (2nd in the table). Their home record reads as 2/2/2.

If you have been following Icelandic soccer you'll surely know Fylkir are currently at 3rd place in the table, but realistically they don't have many chances to catch Valur (2nd place) and get a place in next UEFA Cup.
VISA Bikar could then provide them a ticket to Europe and Fylkir are really optimistic about reaching at least the final rounds.

The most dangerous opponents are already out of the competition: IA Akranes have been thrashed by FH (that would not occupy the UEFA place for the national Cup winner) in the other 1/8 final match (5-1 AET), Keflavik is out as well and one between Valur and KR (that will meet each other at this stage) soon will.

Defeating HK and progressing would mean taking the first step toward an achievement that looks really possible. Fylkir do know that and they're going to travel to HK with the full squad.

In conclusion we have a team that collected 12 out of 17 points on the road and is going to play away vs an average side of a lower division with their best available squad and strong motivations.
I do believe HK will be highly motivated as well, but if Fylkir want to progress it should only be up to them.

HK - Fylkir:

Pick: Fylkir
Odds: 1,60
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 8,5/10
Confidence: 7/10

KK_

Fylkir 0 - 1 Throttur

Guess the Fylkyr's player have had too many hamburgers at the grill before the game :)
Not much to say. Fylkir have been the better side in the first half, then in the middle of the 2nd period both teams took a forward off as they were satisfied with the draw, but Throttur managed to score and collect 3 important points.

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 17-07-2005 -

Fylkir - Throttur (R.F. 2-1)

After the scoreless home-draw vs IA Throttur will try and find another positive result in the derby vs Fylkir.

Fylkir are currently at 3rd place in the table (Intertoto Cup); last week they defeated away KR (3-1 FT), and I would say that game showed nothing of new:
KR are a poor side, while Fylkir, excellent on the road, will fight to finish in the top 3 (actually only the 3rd spot looks within their reach ).
If you look at Fylkir's home record, however, you'll find they're a very different team when playing on the home ground: no more micidial counters, but lots of struggling both with strong and weak opponents.

Throttur still need points desperately: they are in the last place in the table and they would be already relegated for sure if it weren't that other strugglers have just few points of advantage. A good result today, with an eye on the other fixtures (Keflavik - IBV and Fram - KR), could be very important.

For the upcoming game Fylkir should field the same team of the last games. They still have some injury worries (Stigsson, Gislasson, Kolbeinsson).
Throttur will miss Saevarsson, but it's very likely Tryggvason will be fit after a little injury. Jonasson and Haflidasson, injured as well, won't be ready for sure.

Fylkir:

Haldorsson; Petursson, Gislasson,Danielsson, Sigurdsson; Harnarsson, Helgason (Hfrankell, often used as forward), Helgason, Hedinsson; Christiansen, Takefusa.

Throttur:

Thorgeirsson; Karlsson, Lárusson, Einarsson, Sveinsson, Hilmisson, Sigurðsson, Hallsson, Hafliðason; Lúdvíksson, Kristjánsson.

Note that the new manager of Throttur (Edvaldsson) was the manager of Fylkir in 1997.


H2H:

2003 Fylkir – Thróttur 1 - 5
1999 Fylkir – Thróttur 2 - 1
1997 Fylkir – Thróttur 1 - 1
1995 Fylkir – Thróttur 1 - 1
1994 Fylkir – Thróttur 1 - 2

The game will be played after some entertainment stuff by both players and supporters of Fylkir, who will perform tricks and games (with and without the ball) because today there is the Fjölskylduhátíð festival. There also will be a grill (hopefully without the players).

At first sight we have a home banker, but I'm going to trust Throttur again. Odds on homewin are simply valueless since Fylkir are the worst home side of the league and today they'll face a very motivated team that IMHO can manage to stay at least unbeaten.

Fylkir - Throttur:

Pick: Draw/Throttur Double Chance
Odds: 2,38
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 3/10
Confidence: 4,5/10

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 12-07-2005 -

Throttur - IA (R.F. 0-1):

Hard match to predict.

The guests come from the away victory over KR, so they ended a 4 matches loosing streak, also managing to score the first goals on the road. I guess IA had a morale boost from such a result and this night they’ll want to try and repeat the good performance vs the strugglers Throttur.

Throttur Reykjavik currently sit in the last place of the table and with half the season already gone it will be very difficult avoiding the relegation. But if you look at the latest results you can find a slight improvement. Another interesting point is Throttur are the team that scored most than any other in the low part of the table. IMHO they’re not doomed yet and will be able to fight till the end at least with Fram and IBV (while I think Grindavik will have less troubles ).

For the upcoming match Akranes should miss Igor Pesic (suspended), while Martin is doubtful (although he is set as a starter).
Throttur will miss Saevarsson (suspended) and Jonasson (injured), while Jaic is back after having served 1 match ban.
The most important news is Throttur have a new manager. Atla Edvalsson, whose brother Johannes were Throttur’s manager himself till 1985.

Probable line – ups:

IA Akranes:

Gudmundsson; Llorenz, Jonsson, Leosson, Sveinnson; Reynisson, Haraldsson, Magnusson, Martin, Vilhjamsson; Hjartarson.

I think the absence of Pesic is a blow for IA that will lack of fantasy in the middle. Although Pesic scored only 1 goal he served many assists and today his missing can influence the game. IA will play with 5 midfielders and only Hjartarson as forward. Guess they’ll play for a draw.

Throttur Reykjavik:

Thorgeirsson; Tryggvason, Lárusson, Karlsson, Einarsson; Hafliðason, Eyjólfsson, Hilmisson, Maruniak; Sigurðsson, Kristjánsson.

H2H:

2003: Throttur – IA 1-3
1998: Throttur – IA 1-2

These recent stats are not very good for Throttur. But in the past the mutual matches provided even worst results for the team from Reykjiavik. The first 3 matches between these teams (we have to go back to 1954) were won by IA with a goal difference of 20-0 !!

Throttur have to risk here. They don’t need a draw so they’ll try and attack. IA will be satisfied by a draw. They’re very solid at home and I think they’ll try and chase the 3rd place in the table (best achievement they look able to get) on their own ground.

I like the home win here, but still can't decide my pick. Wait for an update!

7:45 PM

Finally I decided to go on the home team. I want to trust their needing of points and forget the bad record Throttur have vs Akranes. Not much confident though.

Throttur - IA:

Pick: Throttur
Odds: 3,00
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 1,5/10
Confidence: 1,5/10

KK_


KK_

KR 1 - 3 Fylkir

Finally a winning pick! Hope it can bring some good luck for this evening when two other games from round 10 will be played.

Fylkir had an easier way than I expected and KR confirmed they'll have to fight in order to stay in the maximum Icelandic division.

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 11-07-2005 -

KR - Fylkir (R.F. 2-1)

In last round, a bit surprisingly, KR lost at home to IA Akranes (0-2 FT). They're now closer to the bottom of the table than to any useful placement for next European competitions.

Despite the many absences Fylkir won away at IBV (3-0 FT). The hosts got a red card in the 2nd half when Fylkir were 1-0 up so the visitors found an easy way to the victory and could score twice more.

For the upcoming game Fylkir should field the same team that thrashed IBV: they still have some injury worries. Gilason (3/0), Kolbeinson (6/0), Helgason (5/4), Ulfarson (4/0), Asbjornson (7/0), Gustafson (3/1) should miss the game.

KR are expected to play at full strenght. The defender Bjarnolfur Larusson, who got a red card in the match vs IA should play as well since his suspension has not been disposed yet.

Probable line - ups:

KR:Finnbogasson; Bjarnason, Larusson, Johansson, Olafsson; Hjartarson, Jacobsen, Palson, Elisabetarson; Sturluson, Kristianson.

Fylkir:Halldorson; Valdimarson, Gislason, Sigurdson, Petursson; Hedinsson, Danielsson, Helgason, Arnarsson; Christiansen, Takefusa.

H2H

2004- KR - Fylkir 1-1
2003- KR - Fylkir 4-0
2002- KR - Fylkir 1-1
2001- KR - Fylkir 0-0
2000- KR - Fylkir 2-1

I think Fylkir should be able to stay at least unbeaten today. They also have good motivations to achieve a positive result. Collecting 3 pts would mean reaching the 3rd palce in the table an getting +2 pts advantage on Keflavik (that also have 1 more game). Three things annoy me: nordic bookmakers are offering 1,80 avg. on the homewin (very short itself and in comparison with other bookies), it looks there is much money traffic on sign 1 and finally the absences for Fylkir. They managed to do well (especially the striker Takefusa is in great form) without the injured players, but KR are a bit better than IBV and IBV played with 1 less man a large part of the 2nd half.

KR - Fylkir:
Pick: Draw/Fylkir
Odds: 1,60
Bookmaker: Expekt
Stake: 2/10
Confidence: 6/10

KR - Fylkir:
Pick: Multigoal Chance 2/3
Odds: 2,00
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 2/10
Confidence: 3/10

KK_

KR 0 - 2 IA

Another lost bet. I guess I shoud have gone for the safer option and take the straight under 2,5.
BTW KR got a red card early in the 2nd half as well as IBV two days ago.
I think I'll have a little break and maybe just put my thoughts on the upcoming games down, without making any picks. Stay tuned.

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 07-07-2005 -

KR - IA:

Two disappointing sides so far..

Before the season starded KR were expected to come back to the top of Icelandic soccer, after a year to forget. They collected 2 victories in the first 2 matches, then the black out.. KR are currently at 5th place in the table and have 17 less points than the leader FH Hafnarfjordur so they've no chances at all for the title and the CL. A UEFA spot also looks out of KR's reach: Valur (+11 pts) are firmly at 2nd place and already have given proof they're a very hard opponent. The only task left is Intertoto, but to be honest I don't really know if KR have an interest in it.

IA Akranes ended last season at 3rd place in the table, so they could play in Intertoto this year (although they're already out). If you compare the current table with last season one you'll notice a big difference in the away stats: while in 2004 Akranes had an impressive record on the road with only 1 defeat, this year they're simply awful (0/1/2 and not even a goal scored. Have to remember, on the other hand, they already visited both FH and Valur). This bad away form is leaving them at 5th place in the table, paired with KR Reykjavik themselves.

The first thought of mine is leaving this game alone: a team that is everything but trustable vs a team that cannot collect points away from home.

However there are few other points to be considered:

H2H:

2004 KR - IA 1-0
2003 KR - IA 1-0
2002 KR - IA 3-1
2001 KR - IA 2-1
1999 KR - IA 1-0
1998 KR - IA 2-0
1997 KR - IA 4-0
1996 KR - IA 1-0

KR at home is 2/0/1. They only lost to FH and both the victories were by 1 goal margin.

For the upcoming match KR will miss Laursson and Bjarnason (suspended); IA will play without Martin and Bjornsson who are going to be replaced by the experienced Valgeirsson and the young Akason, at his debut with Akranes.

Looking at this stuff I would say home win and under 2,5 are very possible, but I don't like odds at all (I have 1,80 on homewin and 1,65 on under 2,5).
Since I believe the most probable results are 1-0 and 0-0 I'm going to make my bets out of this thought and try the draw, giving KR - 1 goal (european handicap).

KR (-1) - IA:

Pick: Draw
Odds: 3,90
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 1,5/10
Confidence: 5/10

KR - IA:

Pick: Multigoal chance 0/1
Odds: 3,01
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 1,5/10
Confidence: 5/10

To make it safer go for the under 2,5 (I'm very confident about a low scoring game, but I'd recommend medium stakes only).

KK_

IBV 0 - 3 Fylkir

The Fylkyr's players who were expected to miss the match did miss the match, but IBV could not take advantage of that and were totally outplayed by the guests. Bad loss and bad start for July.. Better luck next time.

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 02-07-2005 -

IBV – Fylkir

Both teams come from a defeat: IBV lost away at Akranes (0-2 FT), while Fylkir have been thrashed at home by the table leader FH (2-5 FT).

Looking at the current form you would say Fylkir have to be backed, especially at those tempting odds offered by most of the bookies: they have a fine away record (2/1/0) and it looks they play better on the road rather than at home (1/1/3). IBV on the other hand are struggling in the low part of the table having lost 5 out of 7 games played so far.

Maybe I’ll be wrong but I do believe hosts are very close to a win here. IBV are expected to collect the points they need to avoid relegation at home. When they play away they’re simply awful with 0/0/5, but on their home ground IBV won 2 out of 3 matches defeating the in-form Valur (2nd in the table) and KR Reykjavik and only loosing to FH in the first round. Also IBV have an impressive home record vs Fylkir and tomorrow they’ll face a side that might have some important missing: surely out will be the defender Ragnar Sigurdsson, who got a red card in the match vs FH; midfielders Stigsson and Kolbeinsson should be out through injuries as well as the forwards Gudnasson and Helgasson (top scorer of the team).

It’s time for the first away defeat for Fylkir and time for us to try and make some money out of it!

IBV - Fylkir:

Pick: IBV
Odds: 2,50
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 5/10
Confidence: 5/10

KK_

FH 3 - 1 Fram; Throttur 0 - 2 Valur

Nothing to say here.. I'm a bit disappointed for the handicap bet (and for my MG selection as well), but overall we had another profitable day. More to come!

KK_