Landsbankadeild - 30-06-2005 -

FH - Fram.

Hard to find some reasons not to back the home side. Everything, but the statistic (once again ) points to a sure, easy victory for the table leader Hafnarfjordur.

Fram are showing a poor form, they come from 2 disappointing defeats both at home vs Grindavik and Keflavik. Tomorrow they'll travel to FH looking for a positive result, but they will need more than a lucky, late equaliser like the one that saved them at Fylkir.

For the upcoming match Fram will miss defender Johansson (1 week ban), while the hosts will play without their top striker Gudmundsson (1 week ban), who scored the half of total goals for Hafnarfjordur.

H2H clearly shows FH have usually no problems vs Fram.

While I think homewin is only good for combos, I'd like to try and give FH -1 goal (european handicap) and go for a narrow win, backing the draw.


Throttur - Valur

First of all I already placed a bet (MultiGoal Chance 4-6 at 5,00 with low stakes and confidence), but odds are already dropped so forget about it.

I was very doubtful about 1X2 bets in this match.

Throttur are in - form and they do need points. Valur, on the other hand, after 2 defeats in a row managed to bounce back defeating KR at home (3-0 FT). Although KR are showing a poor game lately the victory ovber them have been a great achievement for Valur in terms of morale. Balanced game? I have to say I feel Valur have to be favourited here.

The guests have an excellent record vs Throttur; also the hosts are going to miss some players: the serbian Jaic and the midfielder Saevarsson will be out through suspension. Two absences that today will increase Throttur's lack oif quality.

FH (-1) - Fram:

Pick: Draw
Odds: 4,00
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 1/10
Confidence: 2/10

FH - Fram; Throttur - Valur:

Pick: FH + Valur
Odds: 2,31 (1,40/1,65)
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 3,5/10
Confidence: 6/10

KK_

Akranes 2 - 0 IBV

Another right selection. It looks we have left the bad luck behind. Fingers crossed for the future!

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 29-06-2005 -

IA Akranes - Vestmannaeyar IBV

Islenskar Getraunir
H: 1.30
D: 3.50
A: 5.15

Really interesting these odds from a local bookie. It looks like the most common odds offerd (1,55-1,65 avg.) on homewin have a good value.

Surely IA are closer to the win than their opponents.
The hosts need points after some disappointing results. IBV are struggling on the botton of the table, so they need points as well, but their awful away record (0/0/4) should not take them too much far today.

Both teams have played few days ago: IBV got a precious victory over Valur, while IA collected 2 defeats : 0-2 away at Hafnarfjordur and 0-4 at home vs Inter Turku (Intertoto). I guess the morale will be on the guests side, but I feel it won't be enough to defeat a quite solid side.Also IBV showed they find very difficult scoring away from home (just 1 goal in 4 matches), and now they could even find it harder: few days ago the forward Ludviksson has left the club.

Finally the H2H.. I won't post it here because there have been too many mutual matches in the recent past between these sides. Just know that Akranes have a very good home record vs IBV.

Many things point to a home win here, and many others suggest Akranes have good chances to keep a clean sheet.

Akranes - IBV:

Pick: Akranes
Odds: 1,75
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 3/10
Confidence: 4/10

Akranes - IBV:

Pick: IBV not to score
Odds: 2,35
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 5,5/10
Confidence: 6/10

KK_

Fram 2 - 3 Keflavik; Grindavik 1 - 1 Throttur; Fylkir 2 - 5 FH

Nice profit this time. Hope it helps to forget the recent bad betting streak.

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 26-06-2005 -

I've just found something of sure interest.

First of all you must know that Stanleybet usually offers odds on a certain team to score/not to score.

Here is my idea:Keflavik, Throttur and Fylkir to score.

Having picked Keflavik to win It's a clear thing I believe they will score at least one. Let's see the other matches:

Grindavik - Throttur:

Despite the results Throttur is improving and should not have too much troubles in scoring at least 1 vs poor Grindavik. We have a match between two relegation candidates. Both will try and get 3 pts and both should score and concede (I do expect an open game).

Fylkir - FH:

Fh are still the table leaders thanks to 6 out of 6 victories achieved. I'm still convinced a stop for them is near, so why not today? By the way we don't need all this, but a single goal.Fylkir are a solid side; also they have a good home record vs Hafarfjordur and IMHO they should not have too many problems in scoring at least one.

Fram - Keflavik; Grindavik - Throttur; Fylkir - FH:

Pick: Keflavik to score; Throttur to score; Fylkir to score
Odds: 2,40 (1,35/1,35/1,35)
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 7,5/10
Confidence: 10/10

Alternative bet (safer choice):

Pick: Keflavik to score; Throttur to score
Odds: 1,83 (1,35/1,35)
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 9/10
Confidence: 10/10

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 26-06-2005 -

Fram - Keflavik

These H2H stats (I'm not going to post them here) show Keflavik usually manage to do well away at Reykjavik and looking at the current form of both teams it's hard not to find the odds on guests very tempting.

Last round (a couple of days ago) Fram lost at home to Grindavik. Maybe a little upset, maybe a clear sign Fram will struggle a lot to avoid relegation.
Keflavik on the other hand have been held on the draw at home by Fylkir. Hosts managed to take the lead twice and twice Fylkir equalised for the full - time score of 2-2. It's not the first time this season that Keflavik cannot hold the positive result. It happened few weeks ago away at Throttur: another 2-2. In that match hosts equalised in the final part of the game thanks to a penalty kick.

Have to repeat odds around 3,20 (or better) on the away side is surely valuable, but a draw saver is needed here. Cannot see Fram winning this one, but the sharing of the points looks a possible outcome: hosts have a good defense with 1 single goal conceded in last 4 home games; guests have some problems in 'killing' the games and both could be a little tired having played just few days ago.

If you don't like coverage bets the safer choice is Draw/Keflavik Double Chance.

Fram - Keflavik:

Pick: Keflavik
Odds: 3,25
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 3,5/10
Confidence: 4/10

Fram - Keflavik (alternative bet):

Pick: Keflavik
Odds: 3,25
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 6,5/10

Pick: Draw
Odds: 3,45
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 3/10

Total confidence: 8/10

KK_

IBV 1 - 0 Vaur

Ok.. I totally forgot the old, simple rule.. When a soccer match have the word 'over' written all OVER it, well.. you can guess how it ends. Another lost bet and another lesson learnt.

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 23-06-2005 -

IBV - Valur

When I look at this fixture I can only see an open, high - scoring match. Once again statistics and form suggest me a goal - feast and once again I'm going to trust them and heavily invest in the under/over market. I don't want to spend more words; just I think with a bit of luck we could see the goals we need to win in the first half.

IBV - Valur:

Pick: Over 2,5
Odds: 1,70
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 8/10
Confidence: 9/10

KK_

Icelandic Sources

Last days I tried and translate Icelandic news I found on official websites or elsewhere. I looked for an online translator, but I was not able to find any, so I'm using an online Icelandic - English dictionary. It takes a lot of time translating the single words and it often happens the news have nothing to do with soccer matches. But I won't give up. I'd like to provide more detailed analysis, so I will keep on translating (in the worst case at least I'll have leart some Icelandic words!!).

KK_

Fylkir 1 - 1 Fram

I hate late equaliser.. This one was very late: Fram managed to score at 90' (+3). Two lost bets in a row.. It's not a good sign, but don't worry and keep on following my Icelandic adventure!!

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 16-06-2005 -

Fylkir - Fram:

Last week Fylkir got their first home win after 2 defeats in a row. They went 1-0 down, but managed to bounce back and collect the 3 pts.
My opinion is Fylkir have been understimated before the season started, but they do look like they have all the weapons to fight for a high - table place.

Fram Reykjavik started the season like an average table team: winning at home and loosing away. Last week, in their home ground they've been held on 0-0 by Akranes.

The current form suggests an home win here and so do the recent H2H stats:

15-0804 Premier Leag Fylkir vs. Fram 1 - 0
07-0604 Premier Leag Fram vs. Fylkir 1 - 1
14-0703 Premier Leag Fram vs. Fylkir 1 - 2
18-0503 Premier Leag Fylkir vs. Fram 3 - 1
11-0802 Premier Leag Fram vs. Fylkir 2 - 3
03-0602 Premier Leag Fylkir vs. Fram 3 - 3
20-0801 Premier Leag Fram vs. Fylkir 3 - 0
18-0601 Premier Leag Fylkir vs. Fram 4 - 2
09-0800 Premier Leag Fylkir vs. Fram 1 - 0
06-0600 Premier Leag Fram vs. Fylkir 1 - 2

Fylkir - Fram

Pick: Fylkir
Odds: 1,75
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 4,5/10
Confidence: 6/10

KK_

FH 3 - 1 Throttur

Nothing to say.. The 'big giants' have crushed the 'little' team and my bet. Suddenly I feel I won't try any other experiments for a while..

KK_

Landsbankadeild - 11-06-2005 -

FH - Throttur:

Thanks to the little profit made last rounds some experiments look now affordable. I would say it's time to back against the table leader FH. Odds on homewin are, of course, very short so maybe we can find some value in guests not to loose this one. The statistics suggest after 4 victories in a row FH could even get a phisiological stop and we know such things are very likely when the 'big giants' play the 'little' teams. On the other hand in the recent Throttur have never lost this fixture, collecting a draw and a win.

If you think you are not brave enough to place your money at odds - against, the under/over market (high scoring game is in the air) is more advisable than a classical 1X2 bet.

Throttur to stay unbeaten will be my only horse today.

FH - Throttur:

Pick: Draw/Throttur Double Chance.
Odds: 3,60
Bookmaker: Stanleybet
Stake: 1.5/10
Confidence: 2,5/10

KK_

Valur 3 - 0 Fram

It only took half an hour to win both the over 2,5 and the homewin bets. I told you: DO NOT understimate statistics.

KK_